TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

SEA vs. TEN: O/U 37.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,102 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over51c39,739$20,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,266.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1002040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under49c9,793$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.5714850%74 W · 74 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c7,500$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,82539447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under49c5,113$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.634542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c3,083$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.139145.1%41 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c2,559$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Under50c1,778$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+173.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under49c1,600$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8165350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under49c1,530$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.337350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…81d2backed Over48c1,500$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+50.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over51c1,288$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.6117350.9%88 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under48c1,207$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.2750242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over59c1,103$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013752.6%72 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over50c777.94$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.97850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Under53c758.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.547052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over47c748.54$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.647552%39 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Under52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24023447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb781…9ba9backed Over52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2084845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over48c256$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.889240.2%37 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3764…6769backed Under52c250.6$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+19.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over68c220.92$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.092147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1b…85c8backed Under37c208.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.396955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over6c207$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.421631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Over52c183.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5910452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Under47c183.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.781776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.23per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Under49c146.62$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.781855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over55c145$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806238.7%24 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under67c133.93$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7511958%69 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1fc…47eebacked Under35c128.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.873951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Under34c114$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccb…bdc4backed Over51c111.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over62c110.52$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over56c99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Under49c91.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0460…7137backed Over52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under55c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.612151.2%62 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4a…4b20backed Over67c62.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under49c59.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.152944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Under50c46.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Under50c44.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96ea…639abacked Under31c44.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Over51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11e8…fe6bbacked Under59c34.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+106.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee18…724abacked Under51c32.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Over49c31.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.252839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Under49c30.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.593964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.36154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Over79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2294…4867backed Over51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under49c22.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4513449.3%66 W · 68 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over52c20.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.481444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over78c15.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.