NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d824adf211d5e1fdbb8f45cc6b16c006d76fce544c2c8b2204296e2bb29264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SEAof TEN, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked SEA | 54c | 11,492$6,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.38 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked TEN | 46c | 10,238$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed TEN | 49c | 4,431$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.56 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked SEA | 54c | 2,074$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.64 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked TEN | 48c | 2,053$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked TEN | 44c | 1,313$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.83 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed SEA | 52c | 1,129$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.91 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed TEN | 49c | 960.38$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed SEA | 51c | 923.62$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed SEA | 52c | 861$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked SEA | 56c | 739.23$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.26 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed SEA | 52c | 705.38$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.58 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…8416backed SEA | 56c | 673.63$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.63 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed TEN | 49c | 501.16$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.57 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed SEA | 51c | 374$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed SEA | 52c | 357$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed TEN | 43c | 300.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked SEA | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed TEN | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked TEN | 45c | 256$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked TEN | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked TEN | 59c | 201.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked TEN | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed TEN | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed SEA | 49c | 143.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SEA | 70c | 128$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed TEN | 42c | 127$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed TEN | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked TEN | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TEN | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed TEN | 44c | 89.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed TEN | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed SEA | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed TEN | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed SEA | 55c | 54.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed SEA | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed TEN | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed TEN | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed TEN | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed SEA | 52c | 37.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed TEN | 49c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked TEN | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed TEN | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…f0cfbacked TEN | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed SEA | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-2.5)Seahawks won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 37.5Under won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 38.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. TitansTitans won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Spread: TEN (-1.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)SEA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.