NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909aa62c151d4d90224722639984cf69739d2739ad2191efc67e56d6f158746a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SEAof TEN, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked SEA | 54c | 25,015$13,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,506.82 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked TEN | 46c | 13,354$6,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,142.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked TEN | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed TEN | 46c | 2,102$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.23 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…19b8backed TEN | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked SEA | 56c | 1,079$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.18 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked TEN | 45c | 830.09$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.54 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed SEA | 56c | 505.8$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed SEA | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked TEN | 45c | 384$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed TEN | 42c | 368.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked SEA | 50c | 367$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed SEA | 55c | 359$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked SEA | 53c | 356$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed TEN | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SEA | 55c | 246.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f918backed TEN | 8c | 202.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed SEA | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked TEN | 14c | 162$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed TEN | 33c | 116.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked TEN | 9c | 114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked SEA | 22c | 108.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed SEA | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed TEN | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked TEN | 45c | 75.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TEN | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked TEN | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed SEA | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…028abacked TEN | 46c | 49.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SEA | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked TEN | 46c | 44.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked TEN | 45c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed TEN | 58c | 32.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed TEN | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked SEA | 56c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed TEN | 44c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SEA | 59c | 17.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-2.5)Seahawks won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 37.5Under won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 38.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. TitansTitans won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Spread: TEN (-1.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-4.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)SEA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.