NFL · resolved market
SEA vs. TEN: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76af24f669530847bd3325884d294c884afd17d28d74cf25e40ab2a756ff99a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 29c | 23,138$6,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,478.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 14,177$9,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,924.48 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 2,257$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.15 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…6769backed Under | 60c | 785.75$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Under | 56c | 496.52$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 46c | 457.39$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 69c | 419.16$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 389$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.54 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 66c | 359.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 78c | 274.72$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 261.05$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 65c | 258.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 58c | 226.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 47c | 214.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 33c | 171.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 65c | 165.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 54c | 157.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 68c | 156$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaa…0585backed Under | 57c | 150.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Over | 76c | 142$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 127$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 40c | 75.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 66c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4771backed Under | 40c | 47.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Under | 54c | 30.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…c723backed Over | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 41c | 24.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-2.5)Seahawks won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 37.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. TitansTitans won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Spread: TEN (-1.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-4.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)SEA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.