Fifa International · resolved market
Japan to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x769bcf067a2f177e3880af3f5932381fd712c47782ae54b5b8334fa276f9e414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 3,596$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.16 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…5541backed Yes | 20c | 3,333$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.66 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 2,977$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.79 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 1,048$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,035$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…27bfbacked Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfe…068fbacked Yes | 11c | 511.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…077bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…9d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 485.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes | 16c | 257.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…c26cbacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 80c | 180.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…a8bdbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 173.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…681dbacked Yes | 20c | 145.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…96c1backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…48a9backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…ea96backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 28%92 W · 237 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…3a43backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…aee3backed Yes | 20c | 72.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…a6efbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad6…e4d5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21d…54e9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan to win the second half?this page
- Brazil to win the second half?Yes won
- Brazil vs. Japan: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.