Champions League · resolved market
Will River Plate win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b2d30bc6a66d959382f320b3fccbf150bc9e8d43553fa1f3308b864a3b33d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 42c | 5,242$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.7 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 66c | 2,376$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.14 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 42c | 1,712$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.91 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 43c | 1,173$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 59c | 1,021$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.62 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.33 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 36c | 998.01$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.83 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed No | 57c | 991$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 24c | 974.28$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Yes | 45c | 775.88$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 24c | 670.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 62c | 598.84$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.58 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 40c | 539.32$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.73 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 67c | 527.01$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 38c | 524.71$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…b2a8backed No | 77c | 490.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…9cedbacked Yes | 42c | 448$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805c…0549backed Yes | 40c | 352$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 57c | 322.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 24c | 266.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 57c | 221.12$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…eda8backed Yes | 49c | 205.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 26c | 202.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…6031backed Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 74c | 137$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 35c | 112.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…915bbacked Yes | 44c | 90.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 78c | 88.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…b9b5backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 85.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 54c | 83.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…b736backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 61.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 29c | 57.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 55c | 40.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f7…7edbbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 39c | 37.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…bea8backed Yes | 45c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 31.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked No | 71c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7934backed Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…d50abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…c925backed No | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will River Plate win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will Monterrey win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.