South American Leagues · resolved market
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e232012b78215d498a42e958f22ad897f147bf5c8ca40a1457a471c64cafca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4778…b5dbbacked Over | 72c | 1,305$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 956.76$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.9 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 766.1$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 377.58$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 311.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 294.51$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 52c | 291.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 53c | 271.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 231.58$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 189.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 40c | 186.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…679cbacked Over | 67c | 176.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 60c | 167.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 36c | 136.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 129.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 43c | 125.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 79c | 125.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 43c | 99.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 97.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 31c | 81.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Under | 52c | 75.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 73c | 71.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 70c | 59.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 39c | 50.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 30c | 45.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 31c | 43.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 31c | 43.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 31c | 43.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 41.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 47c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 50c | 39.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 71c | 37.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 36.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over | 36c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 34c | 31.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Over | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Over | 52c | 26.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 48c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 78c | 15.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…79afbacked Over | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.