CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f79d90cba3f4852d33fb240cc488e73d00eeb67c21d60ed6be83d721a5e8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Aurora Gaming, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 15,510$7,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,904.99 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 8,245$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,205.92 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 6,169$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 4,766$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.67 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 4,448$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 4,129$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 1,560$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.04 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 1,203$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.26 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 838.9$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.23 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 812.41$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.81 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 666.66$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 502.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 488.46$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.46 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 488.24$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 456$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 375$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 331.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 329$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Aurora Gaming | 17c | 299.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…8b56backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…2f3fbacked Aurora Gaming | 35c | 285.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 282.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 281.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 231.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 230$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora Gaming | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 199.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Aurora Gaming | 26c | 198$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 190.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a8…bdc6backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 165.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 163.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…0e33backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 162.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8fe8backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 125.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 123.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 83.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora Gaming | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 68.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…22dabacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 34.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.