NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hornets (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773a09b37ab087155f0467027127978315105c7830d777ac2f93134fa198a24e

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Hornets, Nets
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x564f…1795backed Hornets	47c	13,995$6,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,577.65	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets	53c	13,019$6,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,118.72	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5442…6fa7backed Hornets	45c	7,500$3,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,375	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8caf…13d0backed Nets	55c	7,500$4,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,375	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hornets	48c	4,208$2,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.27	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Nets	55c	2,500$1,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,125	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	52c	1,378$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	53c	929.64$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.93	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets	49c	608.31$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.8	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Nets	49c	600$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hornets	44c	586$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.5	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nets	56c	535.71$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.71	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Nets	56c	143.41$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.41	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets	50c	113.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.62	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hornets	43c	107.25$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.04	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Nets	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Nets	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Nets	64c	100$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Nets	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Nets	54c	91.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.91	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed Hornets	46c	91.14$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	148	41.9%62 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Nets	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Nets	56c	69.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Hornets	49c	59.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Nets	51c	51$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.79	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nets	49c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936b…c603backed Hornets	47c	42.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Nets	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Hornets	56c	29.49$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hornets (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event