NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ee295858fc09fc4665285b284c978676b3f963de50ecadddfbf424d16b5059b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Hornets, Nets
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $201,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,776 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Hornets	51c	106,739$54,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54,015.69	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets	49c	79,510$39,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40,169.75	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hornets	6c	40,111$2,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,535.2	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Nets	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nets	49c	11,428$5,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,828.28	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets	50c	9,228$4,614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,614	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets	51c	5,137$2,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,598.5	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,550	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	49c	4,716$2,313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,402.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Nets	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Hornets	50c	3,999$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.57	443	37.9%168 W · 275 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	50c	3,494$1,745 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,748.45	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets	50c	2,649$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.6	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Nets	49c	2,500$1,225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,275	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets	50c	2,319$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,159.25	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	50c	2,000$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,005	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hornets	51c	1,964$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nets	33c	1,479$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.7	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets	49c	1,064$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.11	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Nets	53c	1,014$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.58	282	41.1%116 W · 166 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hornets	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Hornets	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Nets	46c	625.21$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.35	206	38.3%79 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets	50c	607$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Hornets	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	386	49.5%191 W · 195 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Hornets	54c	559.05$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nets	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hornets	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Nets	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Hornets	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	172	50%86 W · 86 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Hornets	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Nets	51c	349.38$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.55	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nets	49c	318$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.28	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets	48c	253.44$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.43	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Nets	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nets	49c	246.65$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.79	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Nets	52c	220$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.6	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Hornets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Hornets	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Hornets	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed Hornets	57c	174.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Nets	52c	128.85$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets	54c	123.4$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.43	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Nets	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Hornets	51c	118.46$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked Nets	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nets	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nets	50c	108$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.48	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7202…d285backed Hornets	50c	105.8$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.9	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets	50c	103.63$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nets	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Hornets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Hornets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked Hornets	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nets	47c	80.76$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.8	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Hornets	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e7…2b53backed Hornets	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Nets	41c	52.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Hornets	49c	51.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.36	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Hornets	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Hornets	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e77…d01bbacked Nets	50c	42.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Nets	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Hornets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	121	55.4%67 W · 54 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Hornets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb2…3bb5backed Nets	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Hornets	50c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fd…7d56backed Hornets	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hornets	51c	29.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Hornets	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Hornets	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4e…dc93backed Hornets	50c	28.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Hornets	71c	22.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Hornets	51c	20.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a5…2fa8backed Hornets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	185	60.5%112 W · 73 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Hornets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d61…ce94backed Hornets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb864…fd58backed Hornets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	59cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event