Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776aa2a78f3cce2f0ccb9131afad0d37686e6b77d1ce7aef7cbd5c8bd27fa217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa318…d0cfbacked Yes | 0c | 3,998$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 2,111$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.11 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 640.06$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 293.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 277.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 39c | 274.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 256.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 177.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 173.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 139.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 44c | 136.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 129.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 47c | 127.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 95.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 77.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 44c | 75.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 72.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 41c | 56.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 55.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 57c | 54.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 50.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 48.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 41c | 47.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 44.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 42.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 40c | 40.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 40c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 36.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 31.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 27.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 21.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…ac29backed Yes | 59c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 59c | 17.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.