Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa5d84f1ef3fa8ec1e2b212ef36d20dff8693962088eddacc39e6d3d0836037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 39c | 1,069$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.34 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 29c | 517.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.41 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 513.59$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 229.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 226.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 46c | 224.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 137.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 108.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 103.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 90.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 88.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 86.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 85.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 83.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 82.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 77.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 44c | 74.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 40c | 74.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 70.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 59c | 67.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 63.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 27c | 60.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 59.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 61c | 54.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 50.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 47.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 41c | 45.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 40c | 45.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 44.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 42.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 39.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 33.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 73c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 59c | 29.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed No | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 22.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.