Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a02451acbca31b3e530ac7c85950e05da8248eb400f85c4df1242b2964a5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 2,029$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,348$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 1,217$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 53c | 1,181$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.53 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 3c | 930.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 920.94$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed No | 46c | 889.08$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 58c | 615.44$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 39c | 600.56$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 521.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 508.75$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 46c | 493.32$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.63 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 38c | 485.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.84 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 469$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 38c | 449.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 430.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 75c | 367.83$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 351.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 343.51$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 28c | 328.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.36 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 320.22$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 292$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 268.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 262.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 253.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 240.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 230.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 40c | 219.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 216.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 45c | 209.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 56c | 188.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 25c | 168.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 161.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 156$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed No | 66c | 154.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 67c | 149.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 148.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 69c | 143.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 68c | 143.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 71c | 140.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 49c | 138.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 124.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…298cbacked Yes | 80c | 124.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 57c | 117.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 114.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 114.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 114.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 67c | 109.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 37c | 106.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 43c | 102.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 102.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked No | 37c | 100.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 98.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 97.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 97.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 89.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 30c | 86.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 37c | 82.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 63c | 79.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 78.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 62c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 77.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 77.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 76.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 67c | 75.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 68c | 73.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 49c | 70.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 49c | 68.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…5cb6backed Yes | 37c | 66.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…c12fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 69c | 61.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 68c | 60.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 59.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 59.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 51c | 55.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 38c | 53.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…bee3backed Yes | 61c | 52.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 49c | 51.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 40c | 50.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.