Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d174bfe4bb0d82147c9feadc350c9167ed7a25093da5dd48d90b2b8e557aff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 1,168$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,096$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 987.58$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 887.85$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 74c | 842.13$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 65c | 737.31$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 704.08$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 52c | 644.2$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.66 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 38c | 625.76$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.05 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 600.71$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 507.24$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.03 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 462.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 437$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 387.01$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 65c | 365.8$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 308.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…7ea2backed Yes | 50c | 299.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 290.35$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 28c | 266.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.76 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 262.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 51c | 247.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 39c | 246.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 241.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 240.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 31c | 238.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 237.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 220$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…5cb6backed No | 72c | 208.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 188.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 58c | 187.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 29c | 175.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 33c | 160.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 159.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 159.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 159.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 26c | 158.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 35c | 154.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 39c | 153.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 141.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 46c | 141.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed No | 10c | 135.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 128$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 55c | 123.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 122.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 119.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 50c | 116.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 113.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 57c | 104.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 31c | 100.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 99.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 96.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 94.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 88.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 87.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 61c | 86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 83.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 26c | 82.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 80.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 79.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 63c | 78.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 48c | 75.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 44c | 74.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 38c | 73.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 73.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 72.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 41c | 71.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 70.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 40c | 70.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 66.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 66.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 65.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 49c | 65.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 38c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 64.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 63.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 63.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 35c | 57.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 64c | 57.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 55.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.