MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d1afcd1b06a515c03c4543dd1c9b673fd46d728ee1e6ae6c2baea23a72acbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Twins, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 35c | 14,388$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,103.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Guardians | 63c | 8,790$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252.12 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Twins | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians | 48c | 5,337$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.37 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Guardians | 53c | 4,256$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.25 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Guardians | 45c | 2,230$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.5 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Twins | 47c | 2,069$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.45 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Guardians | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Twins | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 58c | 1,569$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 48c | 1,366$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Twins | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 44c | 959.75$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.03 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 50c | 885.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Twins | 56c | 692.79$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.1 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Twins | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Guardians | 70c | 416.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Twins | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Twins | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 51c | 389.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.72 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Twins | 49c | 362$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Twins | 44c | 347.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Twins | 52c | 314.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 52c | 304$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Twins | 44c | 284.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Twins | 50c | 275$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 46c | 255.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Guardians | 57c | 208.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Guardians | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 48c | 136.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Guardians | 50c | 127.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Twins | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Guardians | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 51c | 102.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe0…6e30backed Guardians | 49c | 92.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…bca1backed Guardians | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Guardians | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Twins | 51c | 78.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Twins | 49c | 77.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Twins | 44c | 72.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Guardians | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Guardians | 58c | 68.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…450abacked Guardians | 55c | 57.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Twins | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Twins | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 51c | 48.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 51c | 42.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…133ebacked Twins | 46c | 36.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Guardians | 52c | 35.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Guardians | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Guardians | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Twins | 42c | 26.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Guardians | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78f…07eebacked Guardians | 64c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed Guardians | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Guardians | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Guardians | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Guardians | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.