NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d3634ec8e7fa4f9291eaf25eba4b49b92739e3235610c4cd5dfc881ace3dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 45c | 2,437$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 58c | 2,375$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Nuggets | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Suns | 51c | 1,104$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.08 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 56c | 937$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Nuggets | 44c | 702.48$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.39 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 45c | 700$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Suns | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Suns | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Nuggets | 44c | 301.28$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns | 53c | 227.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 43c | 209.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 43c | 152.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 58c | 140.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Suns | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 44c | 106.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Nuggets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Nuggets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Suns | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 44c | 89.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 56c | 57.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…1b1abacked Nuggets | 45c | 34.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…19e8backed Nuggets | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Suns | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Suns | 56c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.