NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b777f1e6c502f78ad71b1550a120c154acbcb7a099a7821e81e56021a89bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Suns | 62c | 8,105$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Nuggets | 41c | 5,750$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.8 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Suns | 54c | 2,545$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,545$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.49 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Suns | 57c | 1,001$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.73 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Nuggets | 45c | 848.45$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.65 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…fcd3backed Nuggets | 41c | 700$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…b3c4backed Suns | 59c | 700$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 55c | 525$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Nuggets | 41c | 467.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.57 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 22c | 350$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 59c | 182.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets | 48c | 68.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Nuggets | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 34c | 57.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 45c | 49.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Suns | 53c | 46.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Suns | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nuggets | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Suns | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nuggets | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Suns | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.