NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf482c49ead1cd758b1f5947e9f24b097ab933e11aa0491bb1797df15da206805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 48c | 32,310$15,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,702.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 53c | 15,006$7,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,929.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 52c | 14,101$7,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,274.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 48c | 7,654$3,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Nuggets | 52c | 7,580$3,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.41 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Suns | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 51c | 4,676$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Nuggets | 48c | 3,860$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.2 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets | 48c | 3,860$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.2 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 46c | 3,769$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.26 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Suns | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Suns | 53c | 2,004$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.12 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…3114backed Suns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…fa2fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…9435backed Suns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Nuggets | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…a2a9backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…90e9backed Suns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…9041backed Suns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Suns | 52c | 1,623$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.76 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 52c | 1,012$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.43 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Suns | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 51c | 901.61$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.85 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 49c | 900$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Nuggets | 45c | 822.96$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets | 45c | 792.15$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.2 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 48c | 751$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Nuggets | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Suns | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 48c | 331$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 220.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 51c | 206$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Suns | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns | 52c | 182$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Suns | 51c | 179.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Nuggets | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 44c | 134$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 123.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Suns | 58c | 115.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suns | 55c | 113.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 113.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Nuggets | 47c | 105.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Suns | 52c | 103.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Nuggets | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Nuggets | 51c | 72.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Nuggets | 53c | 70.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Suns | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Suns | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Suns | 54c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 45c | 31.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Suns | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Suns | 53c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.