NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69b5895cadfd55d2cbf5c7b3fd5ba267f26483593809c3d4f319491283179272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Suns | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 7,895$3,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,947.5 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Suns | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 50c | 6,336$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Nuggets | 52c | 2,535$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Nuggets | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,730$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,683$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.16 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 65c | 1,666$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,644$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 46c | 1,025$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.73 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Suns | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 49c | 980.39$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.39 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…c0d6backed Suns | 53c | 950$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 48c | 915.43$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.41 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Nuggets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…9b81backed Nuggets | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Suns | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 52c | 211.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Suns | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 48c | 106.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Nuggets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Suns | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 48c | 94.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Nuggets | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nuggets | 51c | 57.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Suns | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Nuggets | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Suns | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 52c | 42.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Nuggets | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Nuggets | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Suns | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Suns | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…8779backed Suns | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…8c05backed Suns | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Nuggets | 74c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.