NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7579ff6b9d05728d8133fedcf17fb9253e10f3d18427fca71af1254d1803c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 6,726$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.75 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 6,503$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.41 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,554$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 3,046$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.2 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…35d6backed Under | 51c | 2,288$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4843backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 1,349$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.27 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,279$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,145$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 616$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.14 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 418$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Under | 51c | 205.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…87fcbacked Under | 55c | 199$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 64c | 121$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…b283backed Over | 47c | 118.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…e5aabacked Under | 51c | 99.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 84.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 70.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 46.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Over | 50c | 43.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Over | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…2581backed Under | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5this page
- Nuggets vs. SunsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.