Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d506251f582f91dd8e3ec782820b18f18d3b36869a458d44192c4eadb67c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 27c | 1,052$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.34 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 1,031$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 432.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 415.31$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 77c | 390.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 304.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 74c | 280.21$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 267.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 252$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 16c | 214.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 210.22$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 200.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 192.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 184.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 174.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 172.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 164.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 29c | 143.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 109.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 108.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 104.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 29c | 101.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 100.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 31c | 87.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 83.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 76.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 27c | 72.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 72c | 68.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 54.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 50.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 73c | 50.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 34c | 48.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 47.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 42.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 39.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 80c | 34.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 33.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 31.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 29.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 40c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 23.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.