Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x260c61197306f2815d7224cabd009dbfe4c025d9191e822ef73e381f0a417ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 3,779$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 3,557$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.19 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 30c | 1,040$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.86 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 579$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 31c | 550$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 477.55$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 402.7$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 368.02$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 295.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 282.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 218.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 201$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 198.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 185.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 184.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 178.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 60c | 167.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 35c | 165.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 10c | 148.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 68c | 142.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 33c | 131.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…8346backed Yes | 33c | 128.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…fdf7backed Yes | 33c | 128.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 30c | 126.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 122.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 109.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 102.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 93.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 73.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 73.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 14c | 70.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 54.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 53.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 53.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 42.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 35c | 41.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 38.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 38.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 33.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.