Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e6fd21e7ad81b84a843bc30cdcaf58b00e88e380f666704edf387d3af11952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 1,734$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.69 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 54c | 1,160$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.88 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.99 | 110 | 42.7%47 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 29c | 1,034$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Over | 17c | 999.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Under | 54c | 928.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.04 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 839.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 21c | 805.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 59c | 783.76$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.34 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 3c | 575.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Over | 32c | 554$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.28 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…d1f0backed Over | 42c | 534.15$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 528.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 21c | 449.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 15c | 127.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 106.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 104.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 32c | 98.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 87.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 83.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 80c | 38.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 59c | 37.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 70c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Under | 75c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 4.5this page
- Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Norway won
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)Netherlands won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.