Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af3b7d40f290fe8cb18b5baf2244bde6a069869fa131b4567ad858821869dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 5,920$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.72 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 2,857$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.08 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 75c | 1,314$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 29c | 850.68$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 792.35$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.13 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 626.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 26c | 493.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 17c | 394.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 20c | 361.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…5bedbacked Over | 71c | 335.21$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 328.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 18c | 321.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 9c | 307.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 10c | 304.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 272.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Over | 79c | 254.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Under | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 18c | 184.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 71c | 110.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 21c | 99.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Over | 71c | 75.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 30c | 69.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 48.1%74 W · 80 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 80c | 56.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 80c | 56.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 80c | 38.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Over | 71c | 35.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…5cf7backed Over | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 71c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…0d49backed Over | 71c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Over | 71c | 25.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…ea7dbacked Over | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 86.5%45 W · 7 L | +7.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Over | 80c | 22.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 1.5this page
- Netherlands vs. Norway: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 3.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Norway won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Norway won
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)Netherlands won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.