College Football · resolved market
Spread: North Texas (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f7a6c31e3d747fa252a28fe2a80b29fecc4bc844295646d63a5aa18bd62368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof North Texas, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed San Diego State | 53c | 14,023$7,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,631.16 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked North Texas | 47c | 10,021$4,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,710.03 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Texas | 48c | 3,938$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.24 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed San Diego State | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked North Texas | 46c | 450$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked North Texas | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked San Diego State | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked San Diego State | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed North Texas | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed North Texas | 69c | 152$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed San Diego State | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State | 52c | 129.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed North Texas | 45c | 126$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked San Diego State | 49c | 72.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed North Texas | 51c | 62.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Texas | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed San Diego State | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed San Diego State | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed North Texas | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked North Texas | 73c | 20.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Texas (-7.5)this page
- North Texas vs. San Diego StateNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: 1H MoneylineNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 52.5Over won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: North Texas (-3.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-5.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-6.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.