College Football · resolved market
North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf399205dd46657f4d42fe7393d53c9d8c33c1f4e31e53073b9e5fcc93a2e5924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 53c | 35,161$18,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,586.2 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Over | 54c | 18,456$9,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,489.95 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 13,703$6,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,447.11 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 11,338$5,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,325.45 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 10,080$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.6 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 4,687$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.72 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.98 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 1,478$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.92 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Over | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,065$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.54 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 46c | 810$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 609$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Over | 53c | 525.7$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 47c | 516.79$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -7.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 161.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 134.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 100.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 54c | 87.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 54c | 77.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked Over | 54c | 60.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…07f8backed Under | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 46c | 47.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…0ad1backed Over | 55c | 39.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 36.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…c62fbacked Over | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 53c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked Over | 54c | 34.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…823cbacked Over | 54c | 34.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +153%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…609fbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 53.5this page
- North Texas vs. San Diego StateNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: 1H MoneylineNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 52.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: North Texas (-3.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-5.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-6.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-7.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.