College Football · resolved market
Spread: North Texas (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0243fc7c6d04b1a9737a788848515643d8b023575e592cc968ce45b14a89463a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof North Texas, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed San Diego State | 46c | 19,530$8,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,639.86 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Texas | 55c | 13,476$7,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,434.49 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed San Diego State | 45c | 11,153$5,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,135.23 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Texas | 51c | 8,003$4,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,093.59 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed North Texas | 53c | 7,734$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.04 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed San Diego State | 45c | 5,771$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.22 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed North Texas | 55c | 4,994$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.95 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed North Texas | 56c | 4,043$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.92 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed San Diego State | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked San Diego State | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Diego State | 49c | 2,586$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.86 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed North Texas | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed North Texas | 55c | 2,017$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.31 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego State | 49c | 1,441$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.96 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed North Texas | 53c | 1,315$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.84 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked San Diego State | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed North Texas | 56c | 811.64$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.52 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed San Diego State | 49c | 500$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked North Texas | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…3ff7backed North Texas | 56c | 316.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed North Texas | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed San Diego State | 49c | 201.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed North Texas | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed San Diego State | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed San Diego State | 49c | 186.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked San Diego State | 46c | 176.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked North Texas | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed San Diego State | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed North Texas | 53c | 116.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed North Texas | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked North Texas | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed North Texas | 53c | 72.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed North Texas | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked San Diego State | 44c | 69.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed San Diego State | 24c | 65.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed North Texas | 56c | 62.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed North Texas | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego State | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…07f8backed North Texas | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked San Diego State | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed North Texas | 56c | 40.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego State | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed San Diego State | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed North Texas | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked North Texas | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed North Texas | 78c | 20.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked North Texas | 53c | 19.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Texas (-6.5)this page
- North Texas vs. San Diego StateNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: 1H MoneylineNorth Texas won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 52.5Over won
- North Texas vs. San Diego State: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: North Texas (-3.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-5.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: North Texas (-7.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.