NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-16.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781d21d7b74849bfa495253b8041ca9e1e2f2f69a6c20fec844f276d0546912b

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4335…fc2fbacked Knicks	49c	29,575$14,492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,083.15	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	51c	29,383$14,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,997.61	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Knicks	49c	22,192$10,795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,396.79	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	51c	10,395$5,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,306.29	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	51c	6,645$3,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,389	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Jazz	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,120	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e27…3cccbacked Knicks	46c	3,900$1,794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,106	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…d8febacked Jazz	54c	3,900$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd49…4b3bbacked Jazz	54c	3,900$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dca…6bdcbacked Jazz	54c	3,900$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4487…512fbacked Knicks	46c	3,900$1,794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,106	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e6…265bbacked Knicks	46c	3,900$1,794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,106	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Jazz	54c	896.36$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.03	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Jazz	54c	700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks	47c	683.19$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.54	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	51c	590$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.9	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	46c	482$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.28	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Jazz	57c	400$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Knicks	43c	400$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Knicks	48c	209.23$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.23	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Jazz	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Jazz	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Jazz	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Knicks	47c	171$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.63	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	47c	117$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.01	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Jazz	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	+8.0wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	53c	76.74$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	54c	71.24$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.47	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Knicks	47c	50.1$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.55	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Jazz	53c	47.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffb2…3bb5backed Jazz	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Jazz	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd7…5403backed Knicks	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Jazz	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Jazz	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-16.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event