NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b1f5f7bd33f3d7e260a93ec94641fd8b8f76013106860d961f1ce63431cb721

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $160,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $160,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,879 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Knicks	53c	140,630$74,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66,447.9	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Jazz	47c	40,000$18,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,800	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	47c	30,145$14,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,167.99	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jazz	49c	20,241$9,818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,818.17	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	47c	15,776$7,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,448.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz	47c	15,500$7,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,285	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	47c	10,080$4,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,737.6	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca66…4e27backed Knicks	50c	10,020$5,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,010	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	48c	2,651$1,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,276.56	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	47c	1,778$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.66	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Jazz	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Jazz	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Knicks	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Knicks	50c	673.41$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.71	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Knicks	50c	667.32$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.66	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Knicks	51c	662$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.86	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Jazz	48c	600$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Jazz	50c	570$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283	563	48.5%273 W · 290 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Jazz	50c	551$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.5	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Jazz	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Knicks	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Jazz	17c	418.47$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.01	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Jazz	36c	320$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.4	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Jazz	50c	225$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Jazz	50c	220$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	548	38%208 W · 340 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Jazz	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Jazz	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	293	46.4%136 W · 157 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Jazz	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	62cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz	51c	138.43$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	47c	125$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Jazz	47c	116.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.98	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Jazz	50c	102$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Jazz	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2012…128fbacked Jazz	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Knicks	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Jazz	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Jazz	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Knicks	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Knicks	50c	80.48$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.24	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebac…be55backed Jazz	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	121	53.7%65 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Jazz	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	244	54.1%132 W · 112 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Knicks	51c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.3	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Jazz	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d50…d17dbacked Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Knicks	49c	49.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.49	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Knicks	50c	49.53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Jazz	50c	46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e6…5920backed Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	36.6%34 W · 59 L	-11.0wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf38b…e256backed Knicks	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0edb…8260backed Jazz	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	61.1%44 W · 28 L	+5.3wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d35…e83ebacked Knicks	52c	31.25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Jazz	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa21d…ba2ebacked Jazz	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d6…1dd6backed Knicks	52c	27.02$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Jazz	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Knicks	51c	22.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.15	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ce…3280backed Jazz	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed Jazz	49c	20.23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be8…f449backed Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ec…f767backed Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a6…a17ebacked Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Knicks	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb09…4ae0backed Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c2…2f0bbacked Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event