Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x782f11f42fdcccc0d4e6bd45179db737b78308ed3e2c2850bd8b5a3184f0b295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roar Gamingof Roar Gaming, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Cloud Rising | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Cloud Rising | 33c | 1,504$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Roar Gaming | 67c | 1,442$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.8 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Roar Gaming | 50c | 928$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cloud Rising | 36c | 905.15$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Cloud Rising | 20c | 775.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Cloud Rising | 2c | 736.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Cloud Rising | 26c | 650.87$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Cloud Rising | 21c | 589.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Roar Gaming | 40c | 584.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Cloud Rising | 13c | 510.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cloud Rising | 21c | 443.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…2de6backed Roar Gaming | 68c | 416.98$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Cloud Rising | 38c | 379.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed Cloud Rising | 42c | 376.38$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Cloud Rising | 48c | 362.51$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Cloud Rising | 39c | 359.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cloud Rising | 17c | 344.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Cloud Rising | 66c | 332.41$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Cloud Rising | 33c | 290.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Roar Gaming | 71c | 279.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Cloud Rising | 18c | 272.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cloud Rising | 33c | 268.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Cloud Rising | 28c | 267.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Roar Gaming | 59c | 262.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Roar Gaming | 59c | 249.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…cc01backed Cloud Rising | 37c | 247$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b57…8cc0backed Roar Gaming | 61c | 241.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Cloud Rising | 11c | 214.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Cloud Rising | 18c | 194.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed Roar Gaming | 69c | 191.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Cloud Rising | 63c | 180$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Roar Gaming | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cloud Rising | 39c | 166.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Roar Gaming | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Roar Gaming | 57c | 157.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Roar Gaming | 62c | 155.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Cloud Rising | 30c | 147.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Cloud Rising | 18c | 143.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cloud Rising | 19c | 125.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Cloud Rising | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Roar Gaming | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Cloud Rising | 32c | 121.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cloud Rising | 33c | 121.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Cloud Rising | 37c | 116.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Cloud Rising | 36c | 115.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cloud Rising | 36c | 115.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…6b17backed Roar Gaming | 61c | 114.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…0f14backed Cloud Rising | 65c | 108.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Cloud Rising | 66c | 101.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Roar Gaming | 70c | 101.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cloud Rising | 37c | 100.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked Roar Gaming | 68c | 100.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Cloud Rising | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Roar Gaming | 55c | 93.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Roar Gaming | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…021ebacked Cloud Rising | 15c | 75.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Cloud Rising | 41c | 72.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Rising | 24c | 69.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming | 64c | 69.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed Roar Gaming | 61c | 68.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Roar Gaming | 74c | 65.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 65.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Roar Gaming | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed Roar Gaming | 66c | 55.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Cloud Rising | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Roar Gaming | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Cloud Rising | 34c | 37.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Roar Gaming | 71c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Cloud Rising | 33c | 35.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Roar Gaming | 72c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Cloud Rising | 31c | 32.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…9d9bbacked Cloud Rising | 45c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed Cloud Rising | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked Roar Gaming | 64c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…cb84backed Roar Gaming | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Roar Gaming | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsCloud Rising won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 WinnerCloud Rising won
- Game Handicap: CR (-1.5) vs Roar Gaming (+1.5)Roar Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.