MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789532e880c965bdde315a127fccb936c22a52efb1a1c4f472d46be0d9399697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 2,131$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.63 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 46c | 976.31$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 649$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 452$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 426.62$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 53c | 405$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 296.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 285.63$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 70c | 252.85$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 219.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 213.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 54c | 147.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 127.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 120.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 113.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 63c | 95.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 28c | 91.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 70c | 72.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Over | 36c | 71.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 33c | 65.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 30c | 55.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 68c | 44.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 54c | 42.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 40.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 55c | 40.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 40.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 63c | 31.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.