MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de0379e3dd6c3601d4a1cf0f2fe69109f05d6caa83b562823683cbd75e2c02c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 1,990$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 1,412$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 1,395$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 771.43$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.43 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 380.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 196.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 175$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 143.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 135.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 131$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 92.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 81.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 67.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 63.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 62.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 58.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 49.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 48.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 48.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 45.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 43.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 40.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 36.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 34.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…05f8backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.