Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789b72f2fa8040e9a77844f3f159a8013f81cb0b39569e766ad169b150dee78f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 1,258$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 741.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 74c | 599.94$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 351$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 19c | 349$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 259$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 27c | 230$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 219$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 23c | 211.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 191.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 20c | 139.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 17c | 132.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 129.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 20c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 111.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 106.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 100.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 20c | 93.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 72.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 63.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 59.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 56.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 55.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 48.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 32.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 78c | 22.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 20.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.