Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37996d9b06cf0b40256d9c3ede90c757886eb4647c6fb397b17dd20fb198eae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 972.67$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 28c | 701.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.96 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 30c | 509.44$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.24 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 22c | 474.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 65c | 460.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 401$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.8 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 354.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 173.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 27c | 172$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 168.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 164.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 119.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 117$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 115.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 113.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 113.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 53c | 108.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 27c | 99.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 98.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 78.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 64c | 78.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 75.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 72.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 67c | 68.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 67.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 62.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 60.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 75c | 58.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 57.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 54.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 51.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 48.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 51c | 46.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 43.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 52c | 41.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 40.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 40.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…1439backed Yes | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 75c | 39.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 38.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 38.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5c…ce66backed No | 72c | 34.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 32.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 70c | 26.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 16.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 65c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 79c | 12.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.