MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78daf138ea2324c6a8e0599d55f929be080b60557a2028c3f5083f46583f6e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 130,680$61,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,411.74 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Over | 53c | 84,410$44,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,689.19 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 55,551$29,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,109.06 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 18,316$8,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 17,786$8,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,270.49 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 9,259$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.26 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 5,693$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 4,538$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 52c | 3,064$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.84 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 2,048$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 1,606$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 1,151$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 1,022$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.45 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 59c | 951.86$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.21 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 917$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.82 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 852$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.44 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 655.98$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 47c | 503.03$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.43 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 47c | 430.53$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 275$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 48c | 218.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked Over | 66c | 149$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 356 | 68.8%245 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 143.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 131$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 102.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 69.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 63.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 48c | 56.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Under | 48c | 55.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 48c | 44.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 31.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Under | 55c | 30.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 48c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 52c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 47c | 21.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 16.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.