MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03575559f837422039842024caa135cea8e690aed00f750b839b9db476624000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 56c | 2,654$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.98 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 44c | 1,161$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.17 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 918.7$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.1 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 866.14$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 43c | 837.21$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.21 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 621.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.57 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 479.86$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 347.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 237.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 231.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 222.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Under | 58c | 128.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 126$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 42c | 118$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 73.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over | 45c | 67.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 56c | 51.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 53c | 44.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 36.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 33.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d36…93a1backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 15.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 16.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.