TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OKSavingsBank BRIONof OKSavingsBank BRION, DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked DRX52c10,996$5,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,717.855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8b6…211cbacked DRX24c10,761$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+56.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed OKSavingsBank BRION49c7,000$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.9921448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION65c6,811$4,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.951,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed DRX41c5,769$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,358.6841644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed DRX51c5,686$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.331,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed OKSavingsBank BRION68c5,520$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.0210653.8%57 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DRX51c5,464$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.761,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked DRX4c4,917$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9131435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION58c4,515$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.8895041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c4,231$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.118945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked OKSavingsBank BRION62c4,065$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.5785046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked DRX0c3,744$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11,44413.2%191 W · 1,253 L-110.0wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OKSavingsBank BRION60c3,403$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.161,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DRX50c3,060$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.0882352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed DRX55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6507852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f80…a594backed DRX8c3,000$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251254%1 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c2,700$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39923439.7%93 W · 141 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked DRX7c2,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18018520.5%38 W · 147 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c2,406$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.7622462.1%139 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed OKSavingsBank BRION49c2,381$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.721,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DRX37c2,321$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.331,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c2,199$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.451936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed OKSavingsBank BRION52c2,115$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.1126942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c2,050$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67219839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DRX50c1,926$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.061,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed DRX42c1,887$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.8863161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DRX5c1,835$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.345833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed DRX52c1,799$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.721,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DRX20c1,616$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.142,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00df…0d23backed OKSavingsBank BRION62c1,609$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.49852%51 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked DRX46c1,522$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.2810445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION78c1,518$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.3844550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OKSavingsBank BRION80c1,500$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.2669756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed DRX53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7951,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed DRX38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57040435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DRX46c1,298$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.81,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DRX57c1,295$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.8185746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c6…3d1ebacked DRX57c1,227$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70015246.1%70 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX5c1,220$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.011,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked OKSavingsBank BRION50c1,199$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.821,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed DRX51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60043151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked OKSavingsBank BRION48c1,174$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.72,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked OKSavingsBank BRION48c1,146$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.8326245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed DRX33c1,017$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.3121937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked DRX20c1,006$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55040651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed DRX51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked DRX12c1,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9520550.2%103 W · 102 L+15.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed DRX54c997.87$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.854562.2%28 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d29…8e90backed OKSavingsBank BRION61c982.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3819559%115 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked DRX49c942.54$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2418755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed DRX3c927.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.097869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed DRX3c899.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked DRX2c831.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION50c794.12$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.1295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked DRX40c791.67$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c766$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40940347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed OKSavingsBank BRION79c727.05$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.125952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed OKSavingsBank BRION49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35750547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked DRX5c677.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.769430.9%29 W · 65 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f67…da0ebacked DRX52c673.08$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010133.7%34 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32544042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed DRX38c610.83$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0621857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DRX51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed OKSavingsBank BRION50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30036260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed DRX51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30664553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2942,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed OKSavingsBank BRION49c591.84$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.8456432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed DRX51c591.84$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8471249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bb…1825backed DRX24c520.28$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+152.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25017839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed OKSavingsBank BRION73c500$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.28951.7%46 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked DRX57c496.85$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2150956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd235…c16abacked DRX28c473.91$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.161154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed DRX14c424.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.491,12930%339 W · 790 L-27.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…2e16backed OKSavingsBank BRION50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec24…9544backed OKSavingsBank BRION50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION72c378.46$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.81,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed OKSavingsBank BRION50c367.28$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.641,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed DRX55c360$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19866445.6%303 W · 361 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed DRX27c348$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.794738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed OKSavingsBank BRION55c347$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.151,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda1e…f6a4backed DRX4c330.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24652.2%24 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed DRX4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed DRX51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15315846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc923…783abacked DRX17c286.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed OKSavingsBank BRION70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7136943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked DRX17c264.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.251,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed DRX39c257.91$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.831,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c03…ffcdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION73c257.37$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3717448.3%84 W · 90 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked DRX24c250$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0533251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed DRX9c245.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5621350.2%107 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c244.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked DRX25c238.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.651,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed DRX5c235.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8811937%44 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd084…27eabacked OKSavingsBank BRION51c228.5$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.213231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf9…1e87backed DRX47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050058.8%294 W · 206 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa211…754bbacked DRX47c210.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.