TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OKSavingsBank BRIONof OKSavingsBank BRION, DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked OKSavingsBank BRION41c37,923$15,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,374.6855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed DRX59c32,662$19,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,237.6513453.7%72 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DRX59c12,757$7,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,473.551,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e3…358ebacked DRX53c11,410$6,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,086.137647.4%36 W · 40 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed DRX3c11,217$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.292072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed DRX0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101276.3%8 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed DRX61c8,632$5,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,263.8121448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION52c8,619$4,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,161.171,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed OKSavingsBank BRION75c5,307$3,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.7125952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION41c5,063$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.9427447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c3,152$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.9242840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DRX52c2,991$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.61,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DRX15c2,788$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.092,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked OKSavingsBank BRION59c2,546$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.8985046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed DRX62c2,500$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5507852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DRX3c2,500$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed DRX8c2,400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19263161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed DRX19c2,050$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.6140435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24075942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed DRX57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9918945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed OKSavingsBank BRION39c1,878$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.191,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b6…211cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION38c1,815$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+56.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed DRX7c1,770$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2123447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OKSavingsBank BRION61c1,761$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.832,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked DRX7c1,665$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c1,593$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.3921857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85569756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DRX59c1,362$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.5585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0808…b544backed DRX2c1,290$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked DRX10c1,200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11417839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION52c1,192$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.4395041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION59c1,121$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.6312042.5%51 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked DRX18c1,118$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.61,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c1,100$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6271,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed OKSavingsBank BRION55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.911,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed DRX4c1,072$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.77869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60078050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed DRX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed OKSavingsBank BRION42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5801,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed DRX36c949.99$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked DRX58c899.99$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.992,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed DRX12c804.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9615846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed OKSavingsBank BRION44c800$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44950547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c785.21$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.571,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed DRX39c750$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29052538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c96…763fbacked DRX12c700$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824914.3%7 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked DRX42c649.63$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7618747.1%88 W · 99 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked DRX3c646.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.631435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed OKSavingsBank BRION44c599.95$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9742148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed DRX23c594.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13524436.9%90 W · 154 L-18.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed OKSavingsBank BRION40c555.17$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.0740347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed DRX56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed OKSavingsBank BRION77c516.26$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION38c510.43$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.6795847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked OKSavingsBank BRION45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed DRX4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2096149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c6…ff7dbacked DRX15c500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7423023%53 W · 177 L-19.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fca…2e16backed DRX45c499.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.821844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed DRX57c495.09$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7848448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed OKSavingsBank BRION42c478.77$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.691,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c477.61$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6143151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed DRX15c420$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6321819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c411.75$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6425038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd185…e40bbacked DRX14c406$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554362.8%27 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked DRX52c399$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7145344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff2…bfb4backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c388.06$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.062250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed DRX49c365$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.854738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION42c359.26$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.371,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed DRX28c357.4$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.51,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81c9…a122backed OKSavingsBank BRION64c357.2$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked DRX27c357.04$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.524326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked DRX36c354.26$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0714153.9%76 W · 65 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed DRX62c321.74$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.171,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked OKSavingsBank BRION39c311.11$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed DRX24c305.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8721350.2%107 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed OKSavingsBank BRION42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17471249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed DRX5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed DRX57c296.93$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2549366.7%329 W · 164 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed OKSavingsBank BRION42c270$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5530050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked DRX15c267.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed DRX15c265$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.241,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed OKSavingsBank BRION39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4136943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed DRX56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14094144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa211…754bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.13447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed DRX25c232.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.081,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed OKSavingsBank BRION41c227$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1915153.6%81 W · 70 L+17.3wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec24…9544backed DRX57c226.76$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.154440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2243539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed DRX58c220$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.684050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc793…59ecbacked DRX59c216$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.443938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f20…eaf6backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c205.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.993964.1%25 W · 14 L+7.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+39.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed DRX19c205.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6231522.9%72 W · 243 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc316…778dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION43c200.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.567154.9%39 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked DRX59c200.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2728855.9%161 W · 127 L-20.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked DRX5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.856317.2%97 W · 466 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c199.19$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1650643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked DRX18c192.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked DRX16c183.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0130421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DRX49c167$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.441,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.