Music · resolved market
Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fb476f2bf3e38683ebfa19eb6c5d60ecad8963abed99b5f1716046b4fefb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 18c | 1,557$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 71c | 658.33$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 68c | 459.53$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.75 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 181.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…aad2backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 42c | 148.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed No | 38c | 106.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 97.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 93.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 39c | 55.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 36c | 47.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 38.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 37c | 33.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?this page
- Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be between 60k and 70k?No won
- Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be between 70k and 80k?Yes won
- Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be less than 40k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.