Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7906c82ae0be8f5d36f7a067d6bf6b00159712ae3f971b827d68c8df4d0bdbef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 41c | 10,082$4,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,929.87 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…7255backed Team Spirit | 62c | 5,182$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205.98 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit | 50c | 3,000$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.9 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 2,756$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.21 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Aurora | 79c | 2,446$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.42 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 55c | 1,840$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.84 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Aurora | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 54c | 924.57$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.07 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 46c | 898.41$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.41 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…be27backed Team Spirit | 61c | 827.63$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 44c | 686.78$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.93 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Team Spirit | 54c | 682.14$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.83 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 58c | 639.41$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.87 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 46c | 634.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.21 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…83a0backed Team Spirit | 62c | 569.18$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Spirit | 55c | 540$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 41c | 450.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 67c | 375$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.25 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Team Spirit | 64c | 315.06$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Aurora | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Aurora | 59c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Aurora | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Aurora | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Aurora | 68c | 192.35$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…7974backed Team Spirit | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed Aurora | 72c | 166.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Spirit | 57c | 160.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Team Spirit | 40c | 151.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 118.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 64c | 105.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Aurora | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Spirit | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Team Spirit | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 39c | 88.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Spirit | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 67.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Spirit | 61c | 61.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Aurora | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 72c | 53.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit | 41c | 50.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…9c87backed Aurora | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed Team Spirit | 61c | 49.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…8dc9backed Aurora | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 40.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Aurora | 57c | 35.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Team Spirit | 67c | 34.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…29febacked Team Spirit | 67c | 33.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Spirit | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x836a…4dfabacked Aurora | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Team Spirit | 61c | 20.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- First Blood in Game 1?Team Spirit won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.