Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81c21d6fe4142b3bd8a0673514324d3a0d82678f63913983663362625ef9f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 40c | 5,968$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,603.94 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 2,446$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.98 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 58c | 2,403$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.54 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 62c | 1,914$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.33 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 57c | 1,587$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.66 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 46c | 1,092$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.68 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 56c | 1,091$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Spirit | 52c | 1,051$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.05 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 32c | 925.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.52 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Aurora | 56c | 795.53$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.24 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit | 57c | 790.27$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 79c | 731.03$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit | 44c | 719.89$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.36 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Spirit | 24c | 510.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 60c | 418.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Spirit | 62c | 308.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Team Spirit | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Spirit | 60c | 265$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Aurora | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…7974backed Aurora | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…be27backed Team Spirit | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 44c | 182.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Team Spirit | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Spirit | 63c | 134.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Aurora | 51c | 129.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…539abacked Aurora | 70c | 119.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Spirit | 59c | 113.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 46c | 109.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Spirit | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Team Spirit | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Spirit | 58c | 52.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Aurora | 51c | 51.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Team Spirit | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Spirit | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…391fbacked Aurora | 40c | 47.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed Aurora | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Spirit | 59c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Aurora | 57c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Team Spirit | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Team Spirit | 41c | 24.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Team Spirit | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- First Blood in Game 1?Team Spirit won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.