TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Team Spirit, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Aurora38c10,097$3,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,261.231952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Spirit62c8,641$5,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,357.4619847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora58c5,029$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.1355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit61c5,016$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.1773841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Spirit42c4,762$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.0418452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Aurora37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked Aurora39c2,921$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.163834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Team Spirit63c2,865$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Spirit62c2,510$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5577357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Aurora67c2,010$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.3811346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit37c1,800$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.631,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Aurora38c1,620$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.425444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Aurora37c1,613$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.4713346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora36c1,508$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.312,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Aurora39c1,351$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.0933644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Aurora38c1,190$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.361957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora49c987.19$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.4986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Team Spirit63c944.99$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.3416155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Spirit22c796.61$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1748648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Aurora36c796.51$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.736346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Aurora69c781.5$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3312851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Spirit36c743.95$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit64c737$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46947660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Aurora37c731.64$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.4518143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora69c652.78$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3823546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed Team Spirit62c575$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Aurora35c527.58$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9346535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora62c516.45$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora70c509.95$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.671,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Team Spirit61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Team Spirit63c492$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.965850%29 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Aurora37c486.49$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4920827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Team Spirit64c440.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.911747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Team Spirit42c412.18$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.033351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed Team Spirit63c406.35$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2568957.3%51 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora38c395.54$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.669835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8e…e61bbacked Team Spirit64c386.28$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.962055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Spirit33c369.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.18854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Team Spirit64c351.82$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.164245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Aurora37c341$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.834146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Spirit63c330$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.933541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora39c322.79$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Team Spirit63c320$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.66936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Spirit64c307.33$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19745951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Spirit62c305.13$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1613733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit56c292$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x955f…a811backed Aurora38c263.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.222544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Team Spirit59c255.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9720535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora65c253.96$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.421,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit37c252.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Team Spirit64c248.54$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.848037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed Team Spirit65c247.39$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16015341.2%63 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd690…40e5backed Team Spirit64c234.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.061764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed Aurora35c198.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Spirit35c193$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5513251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit43c190.43$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed Team Spirit65c190.26$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f6…94abbacked Team Spirit46c188.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed Aurora40c178.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.953844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Aurora78c174$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0914121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Spirit35c173.55$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8314142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Spirit52c159.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9953634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…e5e6backed Aurora36c157.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Aurora36c157.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Team Spirit65c155.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3915465.6%101 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Team Spirit65c152.46$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Team Spirit33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit33c146.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.922,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Aurora37c138.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.562352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked Team Spirit63c128.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.886460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Spirit41c114.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Team Spirit17c105.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4818248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora63c104.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6722848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x937b…1c0abacked Team Spirit40c102.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.754017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-53%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a9d…98ddbacked Aurora65c101.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.481546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Team Spirit43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f02…1395backed Team Spirit37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Team Spirit62c99.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9722845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x23c0…77babacked Aurora36c99.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Team Spirit65c91.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0623849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf837…2814backed Team Spirit68c83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.58562.4%53 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Aurora37c82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.669644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…30d2backed Team Spirit63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Team Spirit64c77.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked Aurora62c71.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.346150.8%31 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d65…e506backed Aurora60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora80c65.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.011,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Team Spirit39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e13…391fbacked Aurora35c60.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Team Spirit35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2117152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Spirit65c56.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8646664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Spirit37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.330138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764f…846ebacked Aurora38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf76d…29d8backed Team Spirit63c50.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Team Spirit63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.55853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Team Spirit58c48.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2823640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4102…b26fbacked Team Spirit51c46.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e83…ecabbacked Aurora44c45.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.114156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Aurora30c43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.116835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.