NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793128719e6b7177a53e789820c3bac7eed4c4a53a9eb340f44023f4a539c147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Oilers, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Oilers | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,999.96 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Sharks | 56c | 28,628$16,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,596.32 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sharks | 56c | 26,500$14,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,660 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Oilers | 44c | 16,767$7,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,419.43 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Sharks | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Sharks | 56c | 11,321$6,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,972.51 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 55c | 9,033$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.88 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 57c | 5,493$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Sharks | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Sharks | 56c | 2,914$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.81 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sharks | 57c | 2,141$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.47 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Sharks | 56c | 2,061$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.71 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Sharks | 58c | 1,897$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.55 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Sharks | 56c | 1,752$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.88 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sharks | 56c | 1,442$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.26 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Sharks | 56c | 999.99$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.53 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks | 56c | 844$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.36 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Sharks | 57c | 785.44$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.74 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 44c | 765.09$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.95 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sharks | 55c | 622.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sharks | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Sharks | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 56c | 499.97$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.99 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Sharks | 57c | 464.91$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Sharks | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oilers | 10c | 293.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sharks | 56c | 288$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Sharks | 56c | 282.49$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Sharks | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Sharks | 57c | 222.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Sharks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sharks | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 56c | 183.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Sharks | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sharks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Oilers | 45c | 166.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Oilers | 44c | 158.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Sharks | 56c | 130.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Sharks | 57c | 116.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Oilers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Oilers | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Sharks | 58c | 90.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Oilers | 45c | 87.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Sharks | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Sharks | 55c | 66.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Sharks | 56c | 62.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sharks | 61c | 59.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Sharks | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Sharks | 56c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Sharks | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Oilers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Sharks | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Oilers | 43c | 49.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Oilers | 43c | 46.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Oilers | 43c | 46.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd6…cd9abacked Oilers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Oilers | 42c | 44.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sharks | 56c | 39.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Oilers | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sharks | 62c | 31.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Sharks | 56c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Oilers | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Sharks | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Sharks | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sharks | 56c | 23.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Sharks | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. OilersOilers won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.