Earnings · resolved market
Will Equifax Inc. (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7944a0bd55b7c3acf9fc3da78ebe6a53881c576bf7a72074d868181403a00a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,476$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 37c | 1,000$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 62c | 983.76$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.33 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 9c | 702.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 57c | 645$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 2c | 634.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 18c | 519.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 10c | 444.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 25c | 330.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed No | 15c | 275.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 16c | 272.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked No | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 16c | 210.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 9c | 192.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 9c | 174.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…1a3bbacked No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 18c | 112.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 17c | 86.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 79c | 30.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa884…89bebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.