Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79540b721947bb1291afd5a343e43589466133775d9ebf17b76f2227bd33db35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 18c | 6,797$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.51 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,644$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 1,414$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.95 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 1,373$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.18 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 76c | 1,256$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.48 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 8c | 944.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 74c | 889.24$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 25c | 769.64$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 684.87$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 78c | 643$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 76c | 533.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 18c | 524.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 16c | 498.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 24c | 477.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 74c | 403.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Yes | 24c | 397.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 25c | 384.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Yes | 25c | 379.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 8c | 337.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 19c | 295.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 247.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 210$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 207.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 25c | 191.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 26c | 184.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 76c | 149.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…5c17backed Yes | 25c | 117.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 106.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 77c | 99.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 95.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 24c | 93.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 24c | 77.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 75c | 71.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 76c | 56.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 80c | 54.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 24c | 54.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 73c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 76c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf7…e88abacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 18.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.