Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5525658cf9e6a0969d09e3a4580474d7684461c30752ac7205e164990a56ee9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 8,402$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 16c | 3,579$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.86 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 2,957$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.63 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 2c | 2,886$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 1,333$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.67 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 24c | 1,325$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.03 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 69c | 1,106$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.46 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 653.01$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 26c | 573.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 29c | 494.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 30c | 479.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 74c | 420.06$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 74c | 359.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 9c | 328.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 26c | 327.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 24c | 290.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 275.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 76c | 260.48$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 28c | 260$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 233.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 25c | 191.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…241bbacked No | 75c | 187.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 28c | 181.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 29c | 162.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 160.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked No | 76c | 159.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed No | 75c | 137.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 76c | 130.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…f8c7backed No | 76c | 112.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 103.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…496fbacked Yes | 29c | 99.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Yes | 30c | 98.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 25c | 98.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 93.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…3998backed Yes | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…4042backed Yes | 30c | 79.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 14c | 74.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 22c | 71.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 74c | 63.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 28c | 61.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 30c | 60.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…2a95backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 73c | 59.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 74c | 56.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 54.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 33c | 53.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 26c | 51.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 51.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 75c | 48.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 76c | 46.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 46.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 76c | 46.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 30c | 38.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 69c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 73c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 74c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…88b8backed No | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.