UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7964746483e239ecb38a45919a08257bdbd0e0367ade8d95ec9e735abd4a2fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 39c | 12,692$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.31 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Under | 61c | 11,709$7,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,526.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Over | 46c | 1,099$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 955.9$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.2 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 58c | 765.52$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…5fb4backed Over | 45c | 290$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 220.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 60c | 149.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 55c | 145.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 39c | 103.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Under | 59c | 87.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked Under | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed Over | 41c | 60.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…63bbbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Under | 57c | 59.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 44c | 41.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 56c | 38.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Over | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 38c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Junior Tafa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.