Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x798f2ce6d3f99fff21a195002b27e02fcd67d49e2396255532ba32571c1086d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,472$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.77 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 420.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 315$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 305.01$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 244.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 203.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 196.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 194.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 186.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 43c | 143.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 15c | 137.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 137.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 135.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 131.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 126.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 120.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 117.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 41c | 115.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 79c | 108.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 103.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 103.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 94.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 77c | 91.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 89.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 88.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 88.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 79.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 68.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 66.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 66.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 63.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 62.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 20c | 59.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 52.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 47.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 46.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 44.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 40c | 41.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 41.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 37.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 55c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 67c | 33.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 49c | 33.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 59c | 33.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 77c | 33.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…a6aebacked Yes | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 39c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 30.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 29.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 51c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 64c | 24.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…b24fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 59c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.