Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65411079bc4158d0819877f627e7c750ff4848793a6a6f0b4d4f6c31a67bf61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 1,071$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 516.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 70c | 449.97$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 331.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 44c | 325.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 56c | 274.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 259.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 60c | 258.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 196.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 177.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 160.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 156.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 31c | 141.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 141.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 35c | 132.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 132.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 130.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 45c | 114.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 69c | 111.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 110.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 95.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 69c | 94.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 90.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 86.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 82.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 68c | 75.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 73.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 65.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 63.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 59.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 56.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 33c | 52.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 72c | 52.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 31c | 51.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 72c | 50.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 46.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 45.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 45.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 59c | 42.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 42.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 41.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 78c | 38.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 70c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 35.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 33.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 55c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 38c | 27.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 43c | 25.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…b24fbacked No | 61c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 66c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.