Europa Conference League · resolved market
AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79966c893ffa5cb46445f88bff963b93ef874abd04bbfb8af88b17b3a9879a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 1,218$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.8 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 4c | 940.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 77c | 639.78$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 78c | 635.39$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 254.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 22c | 210.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 133.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 77c | 125.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 78c | 95.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…13cdbacked Over | 77c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 23c | 56.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 77c | 56.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…83f5backed Over | 77c | 51.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 78c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Over won
- AEK vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.